Jill Stein Hurts Donald Trump More Than Kamala Harris, Poll Suggests

A new poll suggests that Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein is drawing more voters from former President Donald Trump than from Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to a Noble Predictive Insights survey released last week, Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump in a hypothetical three-way race. With Stein on the ballot, Harris’ lead expands, pointing to a potential spoiler effect similar to what many Democrats blamed Stein for doing to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
The poll shows Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 47 percent. However, with Stein in the race, Trump’s support dips to 46 percent, while Harris maintains her 49 percent backing, suggesting that Stein draws more support from Trump than from Harris. Though Stein’s voter base remains relatively small, at about 1 percent, it could prove crucial in an election that hinges on tight margins in swing states.
The poll surveyed 2,300 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percent.
The dynamic mirrors concerns from 2016, when Stein’s candidacy was seen by many as siphoning votes from Clinton in pivotal states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, ultimately aiding Trump’s victory.
In Michigan, Trump beat Clinton by 10,704 votes. Stein received 51,463 votes in the state. In Pennsylvania, Trump beat Clinton by 44,292 votes. Stein received 49,941 votes. In Wisconsin, Trump beat Clinton by 22,748 votes. Stein received 31,072 votes.
The legacy of that election looms large over the 2024 contest, particularly as Harris seeks to retain a coalition of voters that covers a vast political breadth, stretching from former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney to progressive independent Senator Bernie Sanders.
But this poll suggests the wind might be blowing away.
This week, Stein received an endorsement from David Duke, the former Ku Klux Klan leader. Duke, a known white supremacist, endorsed Stein over Trump, citing her criticism of U.S. policy on Israel as the reason.
Stein has unequivocally rejected the endorsement, calling Duke a “racist troll” in a social media post. Nevertheless, the attention surrounding the endorsement has cast a shadow over Stein’s campaign and added a controversial layer to an already-complex race.
Duke’s public break from Trump marks a reversal of his 2016 and 2020 endorsements, accusing Trump of being too closely aligned with Israel and the “Jewish lobby.”
This development, while unlikely to influence a large number of voters, may sway far-right or nationalist segments of Trump’s base who feel alienated by his foreign policy stances.
For Trump, the emergence of Stein as a potential spoiler may be a critical factor in battleground states, where even a small shift in votes could determine the outcome. For Harris, Stein’s candidacy could paradoxically provide an unexpected advantage, drawing votes from Trump and narrowing his pathway to victory.
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Stein, Harris and Trump via email for comment.